Ontario reports regularly on climate change progress, allowing the observation of trends in the economy and society that influence greenhouse gas emissions.  In addition, it enables the assessment of policies, programs and other actions as well as the forecasting of future trends.  Areas for further action are highlighted.

The information presented in this report is based on Environment Canada’s National Inventory Report 1990–2012: Greenhouse Gases Sources and Sinks, released in April 2014. Ontario relies on this report to evaluate historical emission changes in several sectors of the provincial economy. Its underlying data also forms the basis of the emission forecasts in this report.

The targets in this report were determined as part of a coordinated global effort to avoid the dangerous impacts of climate change on our planet and quality of life, but also to help ensure a cleaner future for Ontario.  The baseline used is 1990, per the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, in which greenhouse gas emissions in Ontario were 177 megatonnes (Mt).

At the time of this report, Ontario was likely to exceed its 2014 goal of 6% below 1990 levels, and was more than two thirds of the way to meeting its 2020 target of 15% below 1990 levels.  Given current (2014) policies and trends, emissions in 2020 were forecasted to be 170 Mt — which would achieve 69% of the emission reductions required to meet the 2020 target.  Ontario's 2050 goal is to achieve 80% below 1990 levels.

Section 1 summarizes emission sources, trends and forecasts; Section 2 breaks down emissions by sector, looks at key contributing factors and policy impacts; Section 3 describes the modelling approach and associated uncertainty.