|
|
| Evolution of Maoism in Nepal : Understanding Maoist Insurgency from Wider Perspective |
 PRINTABLE VERSION |
Even though the country is facing a humanitarian crisis of massive proportion, the political parties, the Maoists and the royalists have paid scant attention to the pressing needs of the people. If the poor socio-economic conditions drag on and nothing is done to alleviate poverty and suffering of the people the good will toward the peace process will evaporate.
Emerging Scenario after Feb 1, Royal Coup
His Majesty’s King Gyanendra Bir Bikram Shah Dev sacked the Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba government on February 1, 2005 and decided to form a councils of ministers under his Chairmanship to “fulfill the people’s desire for the restoration of peace and security and to activate the democratic dispensation soon”. With this the King has declared a state of emergency with immediate effect throughout the Kingdom in accordance with the Constitution of the Kingdom of Nepal 1990 article 115(1), as a serious crisis has been arisen in the Kingdom’s sovereignty, integrity and security. The top political leaders and the student leaders were kept under the house arrest or they were taken into the custody. Although the State of Emergency was suspend after three months and many of these political parties were released from their house arrest or from the custody but the international community have not approved this move. The international community particularly the US, UK and the India doubt on the move of the king towards the damage to the Democracy.
King Gyanendra's seizure of power and arrest of Democratic Party leaders on February 1, 2005 will likely aid the Maoist insurgency and intensify the civil war. This move by the king has alienated his people further from the monarchy by displaying clearly that he has no intention of being a constitutional monarch. Although he has placed the blame on every quarter of the Nepalese political structure the question is whether the Nepalese people are willing to believe his action to be one for the benefit of the Nepalese people. If the argument about the need for emergency flowing from the palace is that it was required to reinvent democracy then the three year period which the King claims power and promises to restore democracy is circumspect. This considering the statement that the dismissal of the government nominated by him has “failed to make necessary arrangements to hold election by April and promote democracy, the sovereignty of the people and life and property”. He has in fact strengthened the hand of the Maoists who have been proclaiming a new democratic socio-economic system and state on the ideology of removing poverty, injustice and exploitation.
The king and his new ministers have argued that only a strong, authoritarian government can deliver peace. The newly appointed deputy premier, Tulsi Giri, argued that Nepal is acting no differently than the U.S. after September 11, 2001, "Every country has a problem which it is trying to solve", he said, "but then it's not justice that you make comments on how Nepal is dealing with it". How the king might achieve a lasting resolution of the conflict is unclear. He may envisage three scenarios but none is likely to succeed:
Holding Talks: The new Council of Ministers has called for negotiations with the Maoists but there is no realistic prospect. The insurgents' chairman, Prachanda, their spokesman, Krishna Bahadur Mahara and other figures have reiterated that they will not deal with the king. Even if they were to come to the table talks between forces representing the extremes of the political spectrum would be unlikely to deliver a stable long-term settlement. More likely, the Maoists would only use them as a tactical diversion and a means for weakening the monarchy further.
Military Solution: Even if the generals recognize that a knock-out military victory is impossible many of them will argue that a sustained offensive would weaken the Maoists enough to force them into talks without preconditions. The army has shown little capacity to hurt the rebels and military experts have been unimpressed by its progress in adapting to a counterinsurgency campaign. Since its deployment in November 2001, the military position has progressively weakened, and the RNA is now burdened with extra responsibilities, which will distract it from frontline fighting. State security forces, which now have to guard against unrest from the political mainstream, will be even less likely to win support and develop improved intelligence capacity. Moreover, the royal coup will likely prove a recruiting boon for the Maoists, particularly from disaffected leftist party activists.
Maoist collapse: Ever since the Maoists' plenary meeting in August 2004, Katmandu government and diplomatic circles have been buzzing with talk of serious splits within their leadership. Many analysts hope that such internal tensions will fatally divide the movement. Similar speculation has frequently proved groundless. The Maoists do have differences over strategy but they remain disciplined and united. Indeed, they encourage a "two-line struggle" within the party as a way of developing policy. As long as they feel they have momentum, serious splits are not likely. Attempts to "decapitate" the insurgency by arresting or killing key leaders would at best entrench local warlords and groups rather than produce a total collapse. Moreover, a negotiated settlement - the goal of any realistic strategy - would be far easier to reach with a unified Maoist leadership than a series of regional splinter movements.
|
Tags
You must be logged in to add tags.
|
Writer Profile
Manish Thapa
I am Manish Thapa from Nepal. I was born in 6th March 1981.I am pursuing Advanced International Study Program in Peace and Conflict Studies in European University Center fro Peace Studies (EPU), Austria, under Austrian Development Cooperation Fellowship.
I contribute regularly in Nepal Samacharpatra Daily (Nepali Daily Newspaper). Basically in Samacharpatra, I report about Development Issues and Human rights issues. I also contribute regularly in various development journals like Development Insight and Development Journal of Nepal.
I am also member of Vienna based International Press Institute (IPI) which is the global Body of International Press. IPI Nepal National Coordination Committee is working in Nepal to maintain Free, Fair and Ethical Journalism Practices.
Beside journalism, I am also running a Youth NGO called Youth Advocacy Group (YAG). YAG is a youth led NGO and I am serving as its President. YAG works with more than 10.000 youths in Nepal on different issues. YAG is a forum for youths of Nepal. Here in YAG we promote Youth Advocacy and Activism. Beside this we also run awareness campaigns on Sexual Reproductive Health, HIV/AIDS, Skill Based Training, Youth Empowerment Initiatives, Youth Journalism Project etc. On YAG, I am basically involved in formulating its plans and policies, fundraising activities and involved in training young people about Journalism.
I am also serving as Consultant (Program & Research) in Social Promotion and Integrated Development Center. Social Promotion and Integrated Development Center (SPIDC) is leading women led NGO in Nepal. I am consulting them on the issues related to Women Empowerment Activities and giving them training on Advocacy of Women Empowerment Issues at a national level.
I am actively involved with Taking IT Global Project (TIG). I am a active member of TIG and involved in many projects led by TIG such as Global Youth Advocacy Network (GYAN), "Speak Up for 2015 Campaign", MDG Asia Pacific Group etc.
Time to time, I involve myself in a consultancy job in various INGOs and UN organization. Recently I involved in UNFPA project called Reproductive Health Initiative For Youths in Asia (RHIYA) to write a booklet on “Meeting Generation Gap in Sexual Reproductive Health” and “Advocacy Leaflet on Sensitizing Sexual Reproductive Health Issues”.
I am currently involved with Mountain Resources Management Group an INGO with their Peace and Development Initiatives by preparing them various literatures on the Issues of peace and development. MRMG is working with The Carter Center of USA to initiate Peace Talks between the Government and the Maoist. The entire campaign is lead by President Jimmy Carter of USA.
So these are some of my activities on which I am currently engaged in. So summarizing my profile I can simply regard me myself as a Journalist, Youth Activist and a Development worker.
|
Comments
You must be a TakingITGlobal member to post a comment. Sign up for free or login.
|
|
