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The upshot is a fierce battle for resources as millions in the developing world strive to attain what their industrialized counterparts are hoping to maximize: the benefits of a lifestyle that requires increasing amounts of energy from oil, and sanitation from water.
Then the new Cold War
China and India are a massively gigantic duo whose continued emergence is leading to confrontations with the likes of the U.S, Russia, the 25-member EU etc., all of whom are aware that their growth engines will inevitably start to stutter without a constant supply of resources, and whose leaderships see no alternative but to go on an aggressive worldwide shopping spree especially for oil. Day to day, I hear of countless “generous” deals struck by these competing powers with resource-rich others, and the dots connect to trends analogous with 20th century ideological warfare. These expose an insufficiency of “analysis of the extremely varying intentions of the key players and the logic behind their conduct and decisions.” As they court the owners and custodians of the resources, deception, bribery and bargaining have become order of the day, creating tensions amongst major powers that may eventually have to bring their nuclear capacities to bear on resource struggles; not to mention the split between the exploiters and the exploited.
The implications for all are diverse especially when a dreadful void exists in efforts to keep the global race for resources in check. The rise and fall of nations will involve considerable power shifts as the world progresses and time will tell who the eventual winners of widely anticipated conflicts over natural resources will be. I daresay that internecine warfare over access to vital resources could become a global phenomenon, while terrorism, religious strife, political orientation and ideology will definitely resort to the backseat of priority global issues.
Many developing countries could exceed their carrying capacity – that is, their ability to provide the minimum requirements of water and oil, or energy, for human survival – and this will create a sense of desperation which is likely to lead to offensive aggression against countries perceived to possess a greater stock of these crucial resources. As crises spiral, developed countries are also bound to be caught up with “participation in peacekeeping and humanitarian aid operations”, “fending off unwanted migrants” or by “fighting for access to overseas supplies” of these fundamental resources.
So either way, Tay, uncertainties prevail. Yet I have come with an open mind. Somehow, I’m convinced we’ll find our way.
TAY: You got that one right, only I’m thinking we already have found the way. Or, precisely, our campus anchorman just caught up with David E. Todo, another student participant at the very venue of the Symposium, who approaches the issue from a noteworthy perspective.
ANCHORMAN: David, that was quite a remarkable cum sanguine argument you put up earlier. You perceptibly regard the scarcity of resources more as an opportunity than a threat. Could you kindly shed more light on your apparently unusual conviction?
Breaking Through on a Wide Footing
DAVID: In spite of widespread pessimism, the world, I believe, will find fewer sticks than carrots from the depletion of vital resources; that represents a clarion call to all (I will return to that “all”). Although individual responses may differ, we share a common ultimate objective, which is to ensure that the risks associated with diminishing oil and energy deposits and the prospects of finite water, among others, do not culminate in the conflicts many have begun bracing up for.
Although, even in that case, preparing for uncertainties – or reducing the vulnerability to risks – has many advantages that go beyond the original purpose. The move to unite as “leaders of today” and “leaders of tomorrow” shows that the most important thing is the world grouping together to dialogue, deliberate, even criticize, and hopefully implement a plan. This group dynamics can be used for other developmental purposes too! The opportunities I refer to, therefore, are subsumed in that process because it offers an occasion to convert a situation fraught with conflict into an opening for mutually advantageous solutions.
I accelerated that thinking by compartmentalizing the world according to the political, economic and social dimensions water and oil assume as presently indispensable resources for worldwide development. That way, I found that governments, the business community, and civil society can, apart from sufficiently defining “all”, also respectively and effectively represent each dimension highlighted.
So, to transform conflict-prone resource interdependencies to a key to stabilizing common interests, it is of the essence that…
Politically, governments should understand that natural resource issues are at least as important to global security as all the war-zones and crisis hotspots that grab the headlines, funds and concern. Politicians may have been negligent of resource facts, but they cannot continue to play largely ignorant of perilous contemporary water and oil challenges which governments need to be satisfactorily organized to meet. Dialogue on water management and oil concerns which are basically designated to technical experts magnifies the absence of political leadership: a limiting factor for far-reaching co-operation. Also, governments must avoid unilateralism in their schemes for these resources and look beyond national borders to region-wide co-operation by negotiating, rather than imposing their interests. The Middle East offers a most convincing example of how international co-operation over unevenly distributed water and oil resources has a long and successful history. The institutions they have created are resilient even when relations are strained. Hence, it is clear that a pacifying strategy will create shared regional identities and institutionalize co-operation on issues larger that water and oil.
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Terhemba Aindigh
Terhemba Aindigh is currently with the Nigerian National Youth Service Corps. Having obtained a first degree in International Relations at Covenant University, Nigeria, with a flair for writing professionally, Terhemba enjoys making commentaries on issues that command worldwide relevance.
His essays have earned him an enviable reputation both nationally and internationally. Some of his writings have ensured his active participation in international conferences like the prestigious St. Gallen Symposium, South American Business Forum, and the Model World Trade Organization. He has also been awarded for exceptional writing by the World Bank and the World Federation of United Nations' Associations.
Most recently, Terhemba was announced as one of the 15 winners of an international essay, video and poster competition sponsored by the World Federation of United Nations Associations. This ensured his participation in the Students for a Nuclear Weapons-Free World Seminar, held at the United Nations Secretariat in Geneva, Switzerland. Consequently, he and the other winners were inspired to birth a global anti-nuclear weapons youth network.
As a founding member of the Students for a Nuclear Weapons-Free World Youth Initiative, Terhemba and his colleagues have taken up the immense responsibility to help in realizing a world free of nuclear weapons.
At present, he is doing what he loves to do best: writing more essays to compete in the likes of the Japanese Foreign Trade Council and Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library essay competitions, amongst others.
His ultimate ambition is to attain the heights of great men like Kofi Annan, who have made no little contribution to ensuring that our world is peaceful and just.
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